Guide · Updated
How to Verify a Crypto Signal Channel's Track Record Yourself
Don't trust results screenshots. How to audit a Telegram signal channel's last 30 calls with a simple spreadsheet, and spot edited posts and cherry-picked wins.
Almost every signal channel posts results. Green screenshots, “TP3 HIT ✅”, monthly reports with a win rate in the high nineties. Almost none of it can be checked from the screenshot alone, and much of it isn’t meant to be checked.
The good news is that Telegram channels keep their history. If a channel posted calls publicly, you can audit them yourself in about an hour. This guide shows how. It’s part of our guide to finding good crypto Telegram channels.
Why results posts mislead
Before the method, the common tricks, so you know what you’re looking for:
- Survivorship. Winners get a results post. Losers get silence.
- TP1 counts as a win. A trade that hits TP1 and then the stop-loss is logged as a success.
- Peak-to-peak gains. “+340%” measured from the lowest point of the entry zone to the highest wick, multiplied by leverage.
- Leverage inflation. A 4% move at 20x is reported as “+80%”. The same leverage on a loss would mean liquidation, but losses aren’t shown that way.
- Moving stops. The stop-loss is “adjusted” mid-trade, so the trade never officially loses.
- Edited or deleted calls. The original post is changed after the fact, or removed.
- Screenshots of anything. Exchange screenshots can come from any account, any trade, or an editing tool.
Step 1: choose the sample
Open the channel and scroll back until you have the last 30 calls, or all calls in the last two months if it posts less often. Take them in order. Don’t skip calls you think are unclear. Unclear calls are part of the record.
If the channel only posts free calls occasionally and keeps the rest for VIP, you can only audit the free ones. That’s still useful, since free calls are what the channel uses to sell the paid tier.
Step 2: build a simple sheet
A spreadsheet with these columns is enough:
date_time, pair, direction, entry_low, entry_high, stop_loss, tp1, tp2, tp3, edited, outcome, r_multiple, notesFor each call, fill in what the post said at the time. Telegram shows the posting time on each message; tap or hover to see it. The “edited” column is yes if the message shows the edited label.
Step 3: check each call against the chart
Open a chart of the pair on a charting tool or your exchange, on a short timeframe (15 minutes or 1 hour). Go to the time of the post. Then check:
- Was the entry reachable after the post? If the price was already above the entry zone when the call went out and never came back, mark it “no fill”. A call you couldn’t take isn’t a win.
- What came first, the stop or TP1? Follow the candles forward from the fill. Whichever level the price touched first decides the outcome.
- How far did it get? If TP1 came first, did it continue to TP2 and TP3, or reverse to the stop (or to entry, if the channel said to move the stop)?
Then record the outcome in R: the gain or loss divided by the original risk (entry to stop). A full stop-out is −1R. A TP1 that’s as far as the stop is +1R. This removes leverage from the picture, which is what you want.
If a call had no stop-loss, note it, and record the outcome as the worst drawdown the price reached before a target. That’s the risk you would have actually carried.
Here’s what five rows can look like once the outcomes are in. The calls are made up; the arithmetic is the point.
| Call | Entry (mid) | Stop | What happened first | Outcome in R |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ABC long | 1.22 | 1.14 | TP2 at 1.36, closed there | +1.75R (0.14 gain ÷ 0.08 risk) |
| DEF long | 3.50 | 3.30 | Stop | −1R |
| GHI short | 0.80 | 0.84 | TP1 at 0.76, closed there | +1R (0.04 ÷ 0.04) |
| JKL long | 2.00 | none | Fell to 1.80, then reached TP1 | No R possible: note the −10% drawdown and flag “no stop” |
| MNO long | 0.50 | 0.47 | Price never came back to the entry | No fill, left out of the win rate |
Step 4: look for edits and deletions
- Edited calls. Telegram marks edited messages. An edited call isn’t necessarily dishonest, since people fix typos, but an edit that changes the entry, targets or stop after the price moved is a red flag.
- Missing numbers. If the channel numbers its calls (#151, #152…) and some numbers are missing, those calls were probably deleted.
- Results posts without the call. A “TP2 hit” reply whose original call you can’t find.
- Dates that jump. Long silent periods sometimes follow a bad run.
Some third-party sites track public Telegram channels and keep copies of posts. If you use one, you can compare the current version of a channel with what was posted.
Step 5: add it up
At the end you have 30 rows. Calculate:
- Win rate (wins ÷ trades that got a fill)
- Average R per trade
- Total R over the sample
- Number of calls with no stop-loss
- Number of edited or missing calls
A channel with a 45% win rate and an average winner of +2R is better than one with 80% wins where losers are −4R. Total R tells you which.
Over 20 trades each, with made-up numbers:
| Channel A | Channel B | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 45% (9 of 20) | 80% (16 of 20) |
| Winners | 9 × +2R = +18R | 16 × +1R = +16R |
| Losers | 11 × −1R = −11R | 4 × −4R = −16R |
| Total R | +7R | 0R |
| Average R per trade | +0.35R | 0R |
Channel B’s results posts would look far better, and following it would have earned nothing before fees.
Compare your numbers with what the channel claims. If it says “92% accuracy” and your audit says something very different, you’ve learned what you need to know about its results posts.
Questions the numbers can’t answer
- Could you have got those fills? Small coins with thin order books may have filled the channel’s admin but not hundreds of members at once.
- Was the free sample representative? Some channels post their best calls for free on purpose.
- Is 30 calls enough? It’s a start. A good month can hide a bad strategy. If you’re thinking of paying, audit more.
What honest channels tend to do
Honest channels don’t need you to do this much work, though you should anyway. They tend to:
- post every call with an entry, targets and a stop-loss;
- post stop-outs as clearly as wins;
- report results in R or in percent without leverage, or say clearly what leverage they assume;
- leave old posts unedited, or explain edits;
- not claim near-perfect accuracy.
These are the same things we look at when we score channels. Our About page lists honesty (stop-losses, losing trades shown, no “100% accuracy” claims) and track record (older channels with a visible history) as scoring factors.
Before you trust the size, either
A channel’s subscriber count says nothing about its track record, and it can be bought. See how to tell if a crypto channel’s audience is bought.
Where to start
Pick two or three channels from our signals category, audit each one’s last 30 calls, and compare. It’s an hour well spent before you consider following any of them with real money, and definitely before you pay for VIP. For the paid side, read free vs VIP crypto signal groups.
Part of our series on crypto Telegram. Start with the overview: How to Find Good Crypto Telegram Channels (and Skip the Junk).